reroll undo is bugged

[Harmless]

When I get time (not today, not tomorrow, not the day after that...), I am going to prove to the staff that reroll undo gives you a lower hp and stun the majority of the time.

I have thousands of logs because my client automatically saves them. I have made over 30 characters, and in the time that I have had this autologging client I think I've made about 10-20 PCs.

Once I have the time to compile all of the thousands of logs into a single searchable database, I am going to do a search for "reroll undo". I am going to look at the logs and jot down before and after values for hp and stun for each.

I am going to report to the staff that about 90% of the time, you end up with a lower result for hp and stun after you reroll undo. I know this to be true from memory but I will get the data that proves it.

I am going to call this a bug, because of the statement in the reroll helpfile that reads "Reroll undo will give you another random roll for derived stats such as Hit Points and Stun." If this roll is truly random, you should expect it to be higher than your first roll about 50% of the time and lower than the first roll about 50% of the time, but I have definitely NOT seen that to be true.

I am going to do this... eventually. In the meantime, if anyone else wants to help prove to me (and staff who may read this) that I am not deluded or just incredibly unlucky, feel free to chime in.

[Narf]

I could be misremembering, but I think staff already knows about this.

Whether it's considered a bug or a cost of using the reroll option I don't know.

[Inks]

Yes, it is lower every time I do this bar once.

[Case]

It's 50/50 for me exactly but I have 4 samples. You have 10-20 samples - how many exactly? It's orders of magnitude between 10 and 20 in a row when it comes to probability.

Neither of those are statistical evidence because they are tiny samples imo. It may also depend on how your stat line is ordered and how the hp/stun are generated, and that will adjust the rates. A better methodology is needed, or a coder could weigh in.

[Nergal]

It's not bugged. As you noted what the helpfile says, health, stamina, stun and mana are all derived stats and are rolled randomly. The assumption that 50% of the time, it should roll higher and 50% of the time it should roll lower is not exactly true, because you could have had a derived stat at the higher end of the range the first time (thus, it is more likely to go down than up). It could work the opposite way too, where a derived stat was at the lower end of the range, and thus it is more likely to go up. The 50/50 chance is only true if you ended up in the exact middle of the range.

I just rerolled and reroll undo'd a freshly-loaded (random stat) NPC 10 times to test this. When the NPC was at the lower end of the HP range before the first reroll, the HP tended to go up with reroll undo. When the NPC was at the higher end of the HP range before the first reroll, the HP tended to go down.

[Eyeball]

It's not bugged. As you noted what the helpfile says, health, stamina, stun and mana are all derived stats and are rolled randomly. The assumption that 50% of the time, it should roll higher and 50% of the time it should roll lower is not exactly true, because you could have had a derived stat at the higher end of the range the first time (thus, it is more likely to go down than up). It could work the opposite way too, where a derived stat was at the lower end of the range, and thus it is more likely to go up. The 50/50 chance is only true if you ended up in the exact middle of the range.

I just rerolled and reroll undo'd a freshly-loaded (random stat) NPC 10 times to test this. When the NPC was at the lower end of the HP range before the first reroll, the HP tended to go up with reroll undo. When the NPC was at the higher end of the HP range before the first reroll, the HP tended to go down.

Just a note: 10 events are not sufficient for a statistically valid test.

[Nergal]

That's true, but I didn't have time to do more yet.

[Fujikoma]

I could be all screwed up in my thinking, but the gambler's fallacy comes to mind, which is to assume that sooner or later you are sure to get a winning hand, but if the deck is well shuffled after each round, then your odds remain the same for each hand. It could be as Nergal says, and that nothing is wrong. I know my numbers sometimes go up after reroll undo, and I ALWAYS reroll.

EDIT: Try flipping a coin 10, 20, 50, 100 times, record the results.

[Nyr]

HP and stun are derived stats (mostly--if not entirely--from endurance).  They are also along a range.  There is a maximum and a minimum given any overall character makeup. 

Maybe you are looking at your luck entirely wrong.  You are very likely rolling up PCs with stats that then get lucky derived numbers near the top end of the HP/STUN range.  Then you reroll because it feels free these days--you can undo it with no consequences, so you may as well reroll every time!

It might be better to look at it this way:  rerolling isn't free.  You have a chance to lose potentially awesome derived stats.  Assess what you are playing and measure it against what stat rolls you got, then your derived stats.  Decide then if you want to lose those derived stats for the chance at higher base stats (and to be honest, the possibility for potentially LOWER derived stats).

[Molten Heart]

It'd be cool if reroll undo always returned a character to its original stats. But it's still a good addition and I still use it.

[James de Monet]

Why?  I almost feel like your stats SHOULD go down if you reroll undo, but maybe that's the crotchety vet in me.  I rarely reroll.  If we know for certain that sometimes they go up and sometimes down, why does it matter beyond that?  Is it just for the sake of setting expectations?

[Molten Heart]

If someone is told they can undo their character's reroll, it's realistic to expect the character to be unchanged from before the reroll. There's no mention of anything different than this in the help file. If this is the way the coder intended this to function then the helpfile should be changed at the least, for consistency sake.

The reroll helpfile:

Reroll
(Characters)
If you are dissatisfied with your character's stats, the staff policy is to allow a player one reroll within the first three hours of play. You may reroll your character by typing 'reroll self'. If you are unhappy with the reroll, you can return to your original roll by typing 'reroll undo'.

Syntax:
reroll self
reroll undo
Notes:
You are only allowed one reroll and one reroll undo. You may only reroll and/or reroll undo within the first three (3) hours of play. This is defined as the first 180 minutes logged onto your character. If your score says you've been playing for more than 3 hours, you've exceeded the time limit. Wishing for a reroll after you have exceeded the time limit is not recommended. Reroll undo will give you another random roll for derived stats such as Hit Points and Stun.
See Also:
attributes, score, wish

Edit: I guess it is in there. My bad. I don't see why reroll undo can't change someone back to the same way they were before the reroll.

[Renenutet]

We could always discuss amending the help file.

Apparently it's already there.

[sleepyhead]

I'm not disagreeing with you that reroll undo should probably return you to your original roll including derived stats, but the helpfile you just quoted does allude to what we're talking about.

Reroll undo will give you another random roll for derived stats such as Hit Points and Stun.

[Molten Heart]

Yeah, I just noticed that myself.

[LauraMars]

We can say using reroll undo "costs something", and that's why your derived hp and stun don't return to a fixed position, but I doubt that was the intent when the feature was created.

[Harmless]

HP and stun are derived stats (mostly--if not entirely--from endurance).  They are also along a range.  There is a maximum and a minimum given any overall character makeup.  

Maybe you are looking at your luck entirely wrong.  You are very likely rolling up PCs with stats that then get lucky derived numbers near the top end of the HP/STUN range.  Then you reroll because it feels free these days--you can undo it with no consequences, so you may as well reroll every time!

It might be better to look at it this way:  rerolling isn't free.  You have a chance to lose potentially awesome derived stats.  Assess what you are playing and measure it against what stat rolls you got, then your derived stats.  Decide then if you want to lose those derived stats for the chance at higher base stats (and to be honest, the possibility for potentially LOWER derived stats).

This likely sums up the issue, I agree, assuming things are working as intended. I still find it odd how good / bad my luck has been. I know I'm not the only one who hasn't had good luck when reroll undo'ing. I hope that people who have concerns about reroll undo consider my experience with it and take that into account seriously when deciding to reroll or not.

As for my personal situation, all I can say is when I saw what happened on the reroll undo, I have logged off and stayed off. That's how discouraging it is, to be smacked with about 10 less hit points right in the first few hours of play, on top of having a stat roll that didn't look very good to begin with.

To be explicit as to why I rerolled in the first place, I had ordered my stats with priority A, B, C, D.

On initial roll, from highest to lowest, my stats were A, B, D, C initially. I wanted the C back where I hoped, not too low, so I rerolled. Naturally, the reroll was frickin awful (even if in the right order). When I reroll undid that... bam, less hp on top of my sub-par initial roll.

I know that stats aren't the focus of an RPI mud. In the end, it won't matter.. but this is just a discouraging way to start a character off, especially one I was hoping to be long-lived. I know that with about ten less hit points that a random, sudden death is that much more likely. Most experienced players know a hp total two-digits long is a tough character to keep alive, especially when hunting.

Did I choose the wrong stat order in the first place? Probably. Should I just let it go and move on? Definitely. But do I want to do that, emotionally, knowing that all the effort in keeping this character alive long enough to see them become "awesome" is now that much more difficult.. no. I don't, especially while I've been in a months-long slump (third such break in the past year).

Anyway, like I said, I've rolled a bunch of times and I've seen this happen the majority of them. I'd much rather just see the original derived rolls kept. I don't see what the value is in "punishing" a player for trying for a different (obviously, better) set of stats. Especially in my case, it's been discouraging enough that I'm already considering storing again to try a different concept.  

Arma lately has had a slight trend in code efforts to improve the "gaming experience" for players (adding keywords to deadly mobs for ease of typability, adding cliff warnings in room descriptions, efforts by coders to investigate suspected bugs in climb code and rectifying other issues with it). . I'm of the opinion that the derived stat reroll offers no enhancement to the "gaming experience" whatsoever, and only serves as a detraction. I hope I don't come off as preachy, but I wanted to translate all the emotions I had over my pattern with it into an argument because I think changing reroll undo to use the original derived stat roll would only improve the game. Thank you.

[Fujikoma]

Some of my scariest and longest-lived PCs have had 80-90 HPs max. One had poor str. I know what people say about str and hps, I, personally, don't believe it. My most amazing stat-roll was flushed down the toilet by something I couldn't have avoided given the character's mindset, tendancies and lack of knowledge, so to me, it doesn't mean as much as everyone makes it out to mean.

EDIT: In short, if you have 80 HP, play like you have 80 HP. That'll be a very healthy habit when you have 110-120 something.

[Harmless]

I know that my current HP roll isn't that bad, and that's not really the point, fuji. The point is, that knowing I just lost something for no more reason than I was somewhat dissatisfied with my original roll, and that now my reaction is to be even more dissatisfied... what does that do for anybody? Does that make you or anyone enjoy your game more that it works this way?

Also, I accept that from your experience, maybe a few points don't matter much in the end, but given that I've survived ridiculous situations (usually with my warriors) with just 1-15 hp to spare, somehow killing something I shouldn't have and survived, with just a few hp left, getting to emote the wounds and create a plot around it, forming a bond with another character in the process who helped and causing later plots... yeah, I have come to value 10 +/- 2 hp very much. Sometime after the 30th run through, especially.

[Fujikoma]

Two monks raise the shades, one wins, one loses.

Get over it, so what, your PC will end up dead even with thirty more HP, get out there and have fun, and stop questioning gain and loss so much. Stop trying to look at your scores as some kind of huge deal, just RP the character, enjoy the RP you get, and know it had to end someday. Trust me, there's not a single death I've had where HP would have made a big difference, you're picking out straws. RP is the point, this is what you came here to do, yes? So do it.

[LauraMars]

Hey guys, this thread doesn't need to turn into a "stats don't matter" vs "stats do matter" shouting match. Thank you!

[Majikal]

I definitely feel about 80 percent of the time the reroll undo gives me lower hp.

endurance dice is roll, say you get a 14 (89 hp)
then your reroll gets you a 16 (94 hp)
Your stats are comparable, but say you like your agility a bit better on the original.

Reroll undo
and.. 83 hp. Cause the random 1-10hp variable that goes on top of your base endurance roll seems like a son of a bitch more often than not. The fact that it's not mirrored in the reroll undo does irk me.

[LauraMars]

I moderated some posts.

[Inks]

I feel what Majickal said is the right of it, "get over it" has nothing to do what the subject is about.

[Incognito]

I've had this happen to me MOST of the times I've had to undo a reroll.

For the folks who have suggested that people should "get over it" - I'd have to say that your suggestion isn't fair or practical.

Please understand that there are many many occasions when a player might have used up a special app, or used up all of their chargen points or even used up the last of the 3 special apps allowed in a year - and when you're in that situation and you find that a reroll undo has pegged your PC at lower stats than what was originally rolled, it really pinches!

Can we request Coders to take a look at this and slip in a fix?

[RogueGunslinger]

It's not bugged.

[BadSkeelz]

It's not bugged, but it's a little counter intuitive. Here's how I understand it to work.

Your HP, Stamina, Stun, and Mana are numbers derived from your stat levels. It's not "Exceptional Endurance = X HP," it's "Exceptional + Randomly Generated Number within a Range =  X HP."

That "RNG within a Range" is calculated every time you roll, including when you undo the reroll.

It's a risk that I think should be spelled explicitly so people can make an informed decision on whether to reroll or not.

[whitt]

It's a risk that I think should be spelled explicitly so people can make an informed decision on whether to reroll or not.

It's in Help Reroll

Reroll undo will give you another random roll for derived stats such as Hit Points and Stun.

Might be helpful if it was at the end of this first paragraph instead of at the end of the notes section.

If you are dissatisfied with your character's stats, the staff policy is to allow a player one reroll within the first three hours of play. You may reroll your character by typing 'reroll self'. If you are unhappy with the reroll, you can return to your original roll by typing 'reroll undo'.

eg

If you are dissatisfied with your character's stats, the staff policy is to allow a player one reroll within the first three hours of play. You may reroll your character by typing 'reroll self'. If you are unhappy with the reroll, you can return to your original roll by typing 'reroll undo'.  However, reroll undo will give you another random roll for derived stats such as Hit Points and Stun, which may result in a higher or lower number than the initial values.

[KankWhisperer]

I'd say it's been about 50/50 if I recall. It's been a while though.

[Ender]

This creates a strange stastical situation where for attributes you are given the option of two rolls, while derived stats you are effectively given three rolls but without the choice to revert.

What also makes this strange is the inability to know where your ranges are.  This ends up favoring the veteran who has played lots of characters and has gotten a feel for where those highs and lows are and to the detriment of the newer player that has no frame of reference what is high or what is low.

I get this is working as intended, but I question the intention.  Why make it cloudy where that range is if we're supposed to take into account that rerolling will change within that range?

Though I really do find rolling for stats in the first place to be pretty silly, but I don't think I'm going to win the battle for a point buy system instead.

[Marauder Moe]

I don't think anyone is claiming that rerolling those values as you undo is ideal.

I suspect it's more that preserving your initial hp/mv/stun values for reroll undo is not a particularly simple code change.

[catchall]

If undo is meant to be free, perhaps the more sensible option would be just to roll two sets of stats from the beginning and let the player choose between them outright.  One roll for derived stats, and no rerolls.

[Dar]

I would just like to add that yes, since the introduction of the reroll undo code, I had the total of 16 characters and I've only had one (1) occurrence when reroll undo gave me more hp then I had before, and I had one (1) event when I returned to 'exactly same' stun/hp. All other rerolls turned out to be lower. Sometimes dramatically so.

[whitt]

If undo is meant to be free, perhaps the more sensible option would be just to roll two sets of stats from the beginning and let the player choose between them outright.  One roll for derived stats, and no rerolls.

+1

[Harmless]

I would just like to add that yes, since the introduction of the reroll undo code, I had the total of 16 characters and I've only had one (1) occurrence when reroll undo gave me more hp then I had before, and I had one (1) event when I returned to 'exactly same' stun/hp. All other rerolls turned out to be lower. Sometimes dramatically so.

A ratio in this neighborhood has been my experience also and I just saw in ATS that this continues to be a pattern players perceive. I know staff ran experiments for us in this thread but I continue to "see what I see" and agree with catchall's suggestion to simply the process and remove the punishing hp/stun recalculation.

[BadSkeelz]

I've had almost the complete opposite. You folks are just unlucky.

[lostinspace]

Yeah, I tend to see increases to derived stats when I roll undo, although I more clearly remember the couple times it's but me under a threshold I really wanted to be over in a stat.

[Beethoven]

It's been about half and half for me. Despite the nice feeling I get when my HP goes up on a reroll undo, I'd still rather it just revert you back to your original roll, including derived stats.

[CodeMaster]

Thinking about it this morning this looks like an interesting variation on the Monty Hall problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Assume you have 3 "rolls" (hp included), A, B and C, that you are going to choose from.  Without loss of generality, say you blindly commit to roll C.  But then seeing you've picked C, the game reveals to you that B is NOT the best roll (the metaphorical "goat").  Counterintuitively, with this new information, C only has a 1/3 chance of being the best, while A has a 2/3 chance -- even though you've seen neither.

Say A is the initial roll, B is the reroll, and C is the reroll undo.  Our situation is way more complicated with other little bits of information thrown in (like our familiarity with stat ranges and the close relationship between A and C).  But the moment you decide to reroll you're blindly committing to C over A.  If the game reveals to you along the way that B is the goat, you're stuck.

[IAmJacksOpinion]

I haven't noticed any particular trend in this, myself, and I'm a pretty high-volume character kinda guy. I agree, I've definitely had characters where my reroll added insult to injury, but usually when it's REALLY bad it's because I was playing a youngster or a city elf or something, and at that point, well, you could've expected it.

It's cool that Nergal went through the trouble to actually test it when, frankly, he could've just looked at the code and saw that there was indeed no "if this is a reroll undo, give less HP" logic in there. It would surprise me if the derived rolls weren't using the exact same methods / method calls as the original rolls.