2013 Stats from the Where Survey

[Nyr]

2012 Survey Results:  1631 new accounts created
268 (16.4%) heard about us through TMC
223 (13.7%) heard about us through a friend or family or a current player or word of mouth or even a flyer
135 (8.3%) heard about us through TMS



Far more detailed analysis for 2013 gathered from existing data greps:

2013 figures (missing some data for January and February and March):

January total:  83 new accounts
TMS -- 8 (9.6%)
TMC -- 12 (14.4%)
friend/family/word of mouth/etc. -- 8 (9.6%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  22 (specifically looked for this data by hand in February to do research) (26.5% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  2

February total: 123 new accounts
TMS -- 15 (12.2%)
TMC -- 31 (25.2%)
friend/family/word of mouth/etc. -- no clue, data lost, error, error, danger
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  no data available

March total:  227 new accounts
TMS -- 69 (30.4%)
TMC -- 37 (16.3%)
friend/family/word of mouth/etc. -- 4 (with only two days of data) (1.8%)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  1



At this point we are able to start getting information on who actually made characters via use of database tools.  We also got a new website.



April total:  452 new accounts
TMS -- 87 (19.2%)
TMC -- 148 (32.7%)
friend/family/word of mouth/etc. -- 44 (9.7%)
Made a character:  105 (23.2% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  9


May total: 488 new accounts
TMS -- 87 (17.8%)
TMC -- 166 (34%)
friend/family/word of mouth/etc. -- 33 (6.8%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  97 (19.9% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  6

June total:  464 new accounts
TMS -- 55 (11.9%)
TMC -- 162 (35%)
friends/etc. -- 43 (9.3%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  82 (17.7% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  8

July total:  406 new accounts
TMS -- 75 (18.5%)
TMC -- 133 (32.8%)
friends/etc. -- 34 (8.4%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  83 (20.4% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  7

August total:  425 new accounts
TMS -- 50 (11.8%)
TMC -- 174 (41%)
friends/etc. -- 43 (10.1%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  89 (21% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  9


September total:  434 new accounts
TMS -- 49 (11.3%)
TMC -- 154 (35.5%)
friends/etc. -- 44 (10.1%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  78 (18% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  7

October total:  365 new accounts
TMS -- 27 (7.4%)
TMC -- 102 (28%)
friends/etc. -- 35 (9.6%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  93 (25.5% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  9

November total:  305 new accounts
TMS -- 26 (8.5%)
TMC -- 125 (41%)
friends/etc. -- 30 (9.8%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  61 (20% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  7

December total:  250 new accounts
TMS -- 28 (11.2%)
TMC -- 84 (33.6%)
friends/etc. -- 31 (12.4%)
Made a character/logged into the game:  53 (21.2% of total new accounts)
Retained player grep 1 (was still playing in the following month even though they created in this one):  3



Old month to month totals were gathered for 2013 by counting who came from a particular month (the one we just looked at) and of those, who was still playing the next month.
Old month to month total for 2013:  68 (increase of 100%% from 2012)
Old month to month total for 2012: 34
Old month to month total for 2011: 27
Old month to month total for 2010: 34

One problem with this method is that it only really works month to month, and when I look it up, I'm comparing to who is actually playing THIS YEAR, or more specifically, as recently as this month.  Each time I gathered the data for a month, I compared it to the following month--whereas when I gathered it for a past year and month, I was comparing it to the current month.  With that in mind, the above numbers aren't really as relevant as I previously thought.  It is still useful but 2013's numbers may well be inflated due to this method.

I decided to look at another way of determining retention for new players.



New grep for retained players, year over year
The number of players that meet these requirements is 54:
Account created in 2013
Logged in as recently as this month but first login was NOT this month (there are 5 of these players by the way)
is not a new staffer, banned, or a duplicate account for whatever reason (there are 8 of these, by the way)

Of these, 8 came from TMS, 15 came from TMC, and 21 from word of mouth...as in specifically from a personal relation (1 of these also cited online stats).  One other came from another MUD.  Another came from Reddit.  The remainder found it by searching (so likely attributable to either TMS or TMC) or one of a few forums (the number was maybe 4 or 5 here).
So that's 38.9% from friends, 27.8% from TMC, and 14.8% from TMS.

I used the same methods to look at 2010, 2011, and 2012 since I was a little curious how this would compare now that I have new information to review.

2010
27 players total - 1 staffer = 26 players retained as of 2014.  Of these, 8 were from TMS, 2 were from TMC, and 6 were from word of mouth.  The remainder were players returning (had old accounts or whatever?) and those familiar with other MUDs...or just not very useful stuff as far as metrics are concerned (they mentioned forums or mud listings but not which one).

2011
17 players total - 3 staffers and a duplicate record = 14 players retained from 2011 as of 2014.  Of these, 3 were from TMS + 1 from a friend and TMS, 1 from TMC, and 6 from word of mouth.  The rest were less relevant.

2012
18 players total - 2 staffers = 16 players retained from 2012 as of 2014.  Of these, 2 were from TMS, 1 was from TMC, and 6 from word of mouth.  The rest were pretty random.

This method is also not without its flaws as it can only tell us who was playing from X year as recently as THIS month.  However, I believe it to be more accurate.

Total new accounts for 2013: 4034
Total from TMS in 2013 (lower due to DB loss) -- 576 (14.3% of all new accounts)
Total from TMC in 2013 (lower due to DB loss) -- 1328 (32.9% of all new accounts)
Total from friends in 2013 (lower due to DB loss) -- 349 (8.7% of all new accounts)

Total # of new accounts that logged in during 2013:  763 (18.9% of all new accounts)



Conclusions?

It's still a bit difficult to come up with exact numbers on new player retention (as you can see there are at least a couple of methods we can use).  Maybe with some additional tools and some reading on how to determine new retention in the best way, we can come up with better numbers that are more accurate and better reflect reality.  However, we have enough data to make a few educated guesses as to what works and what does not work.  

1.  We get a lot of new players in the door due to TMC and TMS voting now.  In fact, we get so much that it increases staff workload just to process the applications.  This isn't without rewards, either--we've seen about 20-25 players stick to the game solely due to our work on TMS and TMC this year, which is (by one method) as much as we retained total in 2010.  Voting is one of the major drivers of our player retention year over year by any method it is reviewed.

2.  The next biggest (if not just as important) method for retaining players:  word of mouth.  Introduce your friends to the game!

3.  There's a big gap that has been mentioned a few times before.  There's a significant chunk of new players that play the game for the first time each month, play for more than 6 hours, but they do not stick with the game month over month or year over year.  There's an even larger chunk that don't stick to it even that long.  We can send them a survey of some sort, perhaps, but it would be good to find some specific data to store in the database about these players.  Origin selection, point choice, race/guild options, etc.  The same goes for those that are actually retained.  Is there something hidden in the choices that players make?  Sure, maybe we retained a lot of new players this year, but of the ones we retained...what choices did THEY make?

Anyway.  Done with my data dumping.

[ale six]

Hey Nyr, when you say "new accounts that logged in", do you mean "connected to ginka and submitted a character", or "got a character approved and started playing"?

Do we have numbers on how many people had their first application rejected and never came back?

[Nyr]

Hey Nyr, when you say "new accounts that logged in", do you mean "connected to ginka and submitted a character", or "got a character approved and started playing"?

Do we have numbers on how many people had their first application rejected and never came back?

New accounts that logged in = they actually were approved to play and were playing even if it was just to click past the first login screen.

Anyone else = was either rejected or only got far enough in to give their e-mail address and never made a PC.

[Kronibas]

Hmmm... interesting stuff, for sure.  It definitely demonstrates the usefulness of voting.

The one player from Reddit caught my eye.  Since I really don't play any games besides Armageddon, even when I don't play Arm for months, I never really look at the gaming subreddits. But maybe it would be worth it.


Uhh, I guess there wouldn't be a problem with an unofficial Armageddon subreddit... it would definitely be more public than the unofficial facebook page or the IRC channel.  One merit to this would be... Maybe potential players stumble across it sometimes, which would increase if someone took the time to make it nice enough to link to other indie gaming subreddits (dwarf fortress-esque games, maybe? Nethack?).  That way, even if it isn't being used, it could act as a signpost of sorts, similar to the way the Wikipedia article does.  Also, I wonder how many MUD related wikis link back to Arm, if any.


How many MUDs on TMS in that top ranking are pay to play/pay for perks/pay any money, Nyr? 

[Jherlen]

I wonder if we could look into branching out our advertising base some. Are there non-MUD-related RP communities out there, like some of the RPG-related subReddits, that we could put a presence on? What about other internet gaming forums or sites devoted to things like fantasy fiction and storytelling? I bet there are plenty of great roleplayers out there that would enjoy Armageddon but have never heard of MUDs to begin with.

[Ourla]

I'd love to mock up some banners and stuff for that purpose.  I think the cost has prohibited past advertising, but there's tons of options out there. 

[boog]

Hmmm... interesting stuff, for sure.  It definitely demonstrates the usefulness of voting.

The one player from Reddit caught my eye.  Since I really don't play any games besides Armageddon, even when I don't play Arm for months, I never really look at the gaming subreddits. But maybe it would be worth it.


Uhh, I guess there wouldn't be a problem with an unofficial Armageddon subreddit... it would definitely be more public than the unofficial facebook page or the IRC channel.  One merit to this would be... Maybe potential players stumble across it sometimes, which would increase if someone took the time to make it nice enough to link to other indie gaming subreddits (dwarf fortress-esque games, maybe? Nethack?).  That way, even if it isn't being used, it could act as a signpost of sorts, similar to the way the Wikipedia article does.  Also, I wonder how many MUD related wikis link back to Arm, if any.


How many MUDs on TMS in that top ranking are pay to play/pay for perks/pay any money, Nyr? 

All Iron Realms games are. The Eternal City is. A few others, I suspect -- a smattering. Maybe 3-5. So that's... 10? Nearly.

[Nyr]

Hmmm... interesting stuff, for sure.  It definitely demonstrates the usefulness of voting.

The one player from Reddit caught my eye.  Since I really don't play any games besides Armageddon, even when I don't play Arm for months, I never really look at the gaming subreddits. But maybe it would be worth it.


Uhh, I guess there wouldn't be a problem with an unofficial Armageddon subreddit... it would definitely be more public than the unofficial facebook page or the IRC channel.  One merit to this would be... Maybe potential players stumble across it sometimes, which would increase if someone took the time to make it nice enough to link to other indie gaming subreddits (dwarf fortress-esque games, maybe? Nethack?).  That way, even if it isn't being used, it could act as a signpost of sorts, similar to the way the Wikipedia article does.  Also, I wonder how many MUD related wikis link back to Arm, if any.

I've set one up just to reserve the name, but we're going to need to figure out how we wish to use it.  First steps would be to compare usage among other RPIs, then other MUDs.

How many MUDs on TMS in that top ranking are pay to play/pay for perks/pay any money, Nyr? 

In the current top ten, 4 are free, 5 are pay for perks, and 1 is pay for play after a free month of play.

[Zoan]

I propose cinema advertisements. Imagine the revenue!

[Norcal]

Nyr I am curious to know if you feel there is an optimal number of players? Is there a target we are shooting for?

I reckon that more players equates to more work for staff, and more of a strain on ginka.

[FantasyWriter]

Shhhhhhh!!! She might hear you.... Last player who mentioned one of her shortcomings a been missing for three years now.

[Nyr]

Nyr I am curious to know if you feel there is an optimal number of players? Is there a target we are shooting for?

I reckon that more players equates to more work for staff, and more of a strain on ginka.

There's not really a target yet.  Right now the goal is really "we know this brings people in the door, let's continue to bring people in the door this way."  We also know that due to the same thing, there are several dozen people each month that come in the door and then leave after peeking inside.  We also know that there are about 15-30 each month that play more than 6 hours but don't stay after that, and about 8-20 each month that play a ton (may or may not stay beyond that, but they play a lot).

We need better tools to analyze things, but in a nutshell:

The easiest thing you can do as a player is to help bring in new players by voting.
We on staff need to find ways to funnel those new players into experiences that get them staying in the game and not just dropping by.

Yes, if we ended up with even 10 new players each month that were either quality roleplayers or simply newbies learning the game in a committed way, we would need to reassess staffing priorities and recruit more staff.  At the moment the only real load on staff is additional apps that are admittedly not so good and require some tweaking or rejection.