There's an IC explanation, more than likely, but nobody believes it when you tell them.
Pay attention to EVERY bit of information or data the game gives you, and study it out.
If I have something that I -need- to succeed, there's a very specific set of circumstances that I religiously avoid, because I've noticed a certain pattern. But, I mean...I can't get any more specific than that, because if Staff wanted everyone to know about it, they probably would've just come out and said it by now.
<on head> a tinfoil hat